Rising Mortgage Rates Cool Virginia's Housing Market in September 2026: What It Means for Richmond Buyers and Sellers

Curt Reichstetter

Oct 25

8 min read

Every month, Virginia REALTORS® publishes a statewide look at home sales. As the association's 2026 President, I get to see those numbers before most people do, and as a broker who has sold homes around Richmond, Virginia for more than 35 years, I always ask the same question: what does this mean for the families we actually work with?

September 2026 showed a market that is still cooling as mortgage rates climb, while the number of homes for sale keeps growing. Here is what happened, and what I'd tell a Richmond buyer or seller sitting across my kitchen table this fall.

Note: This post is a snapshot of Virginia's September 2026 housing data, written in October 2026. Market conditions change from month to month, so the figures below describe September, not today. For the most recent numbers, see our latest Richmond market updates.

What happened to Virginia home sales in September 2026?

Sales slowed again. 8,410 homes sold across Virginia in September, down 4.2% from September 2025, which is 373 fewer sales than a year ago and the second month in a row of declining sales. Pending sales, which are contracts signed but not yet closed, fell 14.3% compared with last September. Even so, sales for 2026 are still 2.7% ahead of last year through the first nine months.

Virginia housing market snapshot: September 2026

Closed sales: 8,410 (down 4.2%)
Pending sales: down 14.3% from September 2025
Median sales price: $420,000 (unchanged from a year ago)
Median days on market: 22 (20 a year ago)
Active listings: 30,001 (up 20.4%, or 5,074 more than last year)
New listings: more than 14,100 (up 7.6%)
Sold dollar volume: about $4.4 billion (down 5.2%)
Local markets with higher prices than a year ago: 57%
Sales so far in 2026: up 2.7% through September

Why did Virginia home sales slow down again?

Mortgage rates. This is the second month in a row that rising rates have weighed on buyer activity. Virginia REALTORS® Chief Economist Ryan Price said higher borrowing costs have caused some buyers to pause their home search, and the drop in both closed and pending sales reflects that. If rates keep climbing the way they have the past couple of months, Virginia REALTORS® expects a slower fall market than last year.

When a buyer's monthly payment goes up, some buyers pause, some move to a lower price range, and some keep going. The 14.3% drop in pending sales tells us more buyers were pausing in September. Pending sales are the contracts that close over the next month or two, so it can be a good idea to expect the slower pace to carry into the fall.

Are home prices still going up in Virginia?

Statewide, prices were flat. The median sales price was $420,000, the same as September 2025. That is not the same story in every part of the state. 57% of Virginia's local markets still posted higher prices than a year ago, so some areas are going up while others are holding even or slipping. Homes also took a little longer to sell, with a median of 22 days on the market compared with 20 a year ago.

Looking ahead, Virginia REALTORS® expects price growth to stay modest through the end of the year. With more homes for sale and a slower pace of sales, it could soften further, and it will vary from one region of the state to the next.

How did the Richmond area do in September 2026?

The Virginia REALTORS® report covers the whole state, so we pulled the Richmond-area numbers ourselves from the Central Virginia Regional MLS. We looked at residential sales of all property types (single-family homes, condos and townhomes) in seven localities: Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Richmond City, Goochland, Powhatan and New Kent. Here is how September 2026 compared with September 2025.

Across those seven localities combined, 1,089 homes closed, compared with 1,167 a year earlier, which is about 6.7% fewer. The median sales price was $430,000, up from $420,000. Homes took a median of 12 days to sell, compared with 14 a year ago, and there were 3,467 active listings, up from 3,139 (about 10.4% more).

Here is each locality, with September 2025 in parentheses:

Henrico: 314 closed sales (329), median price $403,545 ($383,350), median days to sell 12 (11), active listings 841 (718)
Chesterfield: 384 closed sales (442), median price $435,500 ($424,995), median days to sell 11 (15), active listings 1,289 (1,138)
Hanover: 107 closed sales (109), median price $500,000 ($499,950), median days to sell 13 (14), active listings 361 (319)
Richmond City: 191 closed sales (165), median price $385,000 ($376,000), median days to sell 9 (11), active listings 553 (605)
Goochland: 25 closed sales (40), median price $625,000 ($615,000), median days to sell 43 (18), active listings 109 (102)
Powhatan: 29 closed sales (40), median price $580,000 ($508,750), median days to sell 17 (13), active listings 141 (98)
New Kent: 39 closed sales (42), median price $487,500 ($478,595), median days to sell 26 (33), active listings 173 (159)

A few things stood out. Median prices were higher than a year ago in all seven localities, although in Hanover the difference was only $50. Richmond City was the only one of the seven where closed sales went up (191, compared with 165) and where active listings went down (553, compared with 605), and it had the quickest median time to sell at 9 days. Chesterfield had the largest drop in the number of closed sales, 58 fewer (384, compared with 442), or about 13%.

Goochland, Powhatan and New Kent had only 25 to 39 closed sales each, so a single month can swing their medians and days to sell quite a bit. Goochland's median days to sell went from 18 to 43 on just 25 sales, for example. A median price also reflects the mix of homes that sold that month, so it is not the same as the value of any one home going up or down. We would not read much into one month of numbers in the smaller counties.

We also figured months of supply, which is active listings divided by that month's closed sales. Across the seven localities it was about 3.2 months, up from about 2.7 a year ago. That is our own calculation, so it will not match the 3.4 months Virginia REALTORS® reports for the state, which uses a 12-month average of sales.

Source: Central Virginia Regional MLS data for residential sales in Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Richmond City, Goochland, Powhatan and New Kent, analyzed by Two Dog Realty in October 2026. These figures are preliminary, and late-reported sales can change them slightly.

What does more inventory mean for Richmond homebuyers?

More choices and a bit more breathing room. There were 30,001 active listings across Virginia at the end of September, 20.4% more than a year ago. As I said in the Virginia REALTORS® release, “Buyers have more choices and a little more time to make decisions than they did during the highly competitive market of recent years.”

What I'd tell a Richmond buyer this fall:

Get fully preapproved, and re-run your numbers at the rate you would get today, not the rate you saw earlier in the year
Ask your lender to walk you through your loan and rate options before you start touring
Use the extra time to do your homework, including inspections, instead of waiving protections
Remember that statewide numbers do not describe every neighborhood, so ask us how homes in your price range and area are actually selling

What should Richmond home sellers do this fall?

Price it right from day one. With more homes to choose from and buyers watching their monthly payment more closely, a home that starts too high can sit. Homes statewide are already taking a couple of extra days to sell.

Price to the market as it is when you list, not to older headlines or last year's neighborhood sales
Prepare the home so it shows well, since buyers have more to compare
Be ready to talk terms, like closing-cost help, not just price
Watch your neighborhood's numbers, not just statewide averages

Final thoughts: Is fall 2026 a good time to buy or sell in Richmond, Virginia?

It can be, for prepared buyers and well-positioned sellers. The statewide market has cooled, and Virginia REALTORS® expects higher mortgage rates to remain a headwind through the rest of the year. At the same time, buyers have more options, and statewide prices are holding steady. What it means for you depends on your price range, your neighborhood and your budget at today's rates. At Two Dog Realty, we work with every client personally, and I'd be glad to look at what these numbers mean for your situation.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the median home price in Virginia in September 2026?

The statewide median sales price was $420,000 in September 2026, unchanged from September 2025, according to Virginia REALTORS. About 57% of Virginia's local markets still posted higher prices than a year earlier.

Were Virginia home sales up or down in September 2026?

In September 2026, 8,410 homes sold across Virginia, down 4.2% from a year earlier and the second monthly decline in a row. For the year through September, statewide sales are still 2.7% ahead of 2025.

How many homes were for sale in Virginia at the end of September 2026?

Virginia had 30,001 active listings at the end of September 2026, 5,074 more than a year earlier, a 20.4% increase. New listings rose 7.6% to more than 14,100.

Why did Virginia home sales fall in September 2026?

Rising mortgage rates are the main reason. Virginia REALTORS says higher borrowing costs caused some buyers to pause their search, and pending sales fell 14.3% from September 2025.

How long did homes take to sell in Virginia in September 2026?

The statewide median was 22 days on the market in September 2026, up from 20 days a year earlier, reflecting a slower pace of sales in many local markets.

How did the Richmond-area housing market do in September 2026?

In September 2026, 1,089 homes closed across Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Richmond City, Goochland, Powhatan and New Kent combined, down from 1,167 a year earlier. The median sales price was $430,000, up from $420,000, and homes took a median of 12 days to sell, compared with 14. Active listings rose to 3,467 from 3,139. Richmond City was the one locality where closed sales went up and active listings went down. This is Central Virginia Regional MLS data for all residential property types, analyzed by Two Dog Realty.

Is fall 2026 a good time to buy a home in Richmond, Virginia?

It can be if your budget works at today's rates. Buyers statewide have more homes to choose from and a little more time to decide. Get fully preapproved, and ask us how homes in your price range and neighborhood are selling.

Is it still a good time to sell a house in Richmond, Virginia this fall?

It can be for homes that are priced and prepared well. Buyers have more choices and are more sensitive to monthly payments, so pricing the home correctly from day one matters.

Sources

Virginia REALTORS® September 2026 Home Sales Report
Key Takeaways: September 2026 Virginia Home Sales Report
Central Virginia Regional MLS residential sales data for Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Richmond City, Goochland, Powhatan and New Kent, analyzed by Two Dog Realty (October 2026)